Abstract

An international team will be formed to develop a system to assess livestock-environment interactions and conserve biodiversity in extensive pastoral ecosystems of East Africa. The assessment system will integrate computer modeling, geographic information systems, remote sensing, and field studies to improve prospects for developing productive pastoral systems which also conserve biodiversity, wildlife, and ecosystem services. The system will enable alternative policy and management strategies to be objectively explored, debated, implemented, and reassessed. Stakeholder involvement will be elicited from the outset. Regional level analyses for East Africa will eventually be conducted using GIS, modeling, networking, and cross-site comparisons. Two workshops will be held in Kenya and Tanzania to develop the assessment approach and to identify appropriate assessment team members. The interdisciplinary team will be comprised of U.S. and East African scientists, managers, and other stakeholders. Several model implementation sites will be identified, including the Ngorongoro-Serengeti-Loliondo area in Tanzania. These planning activities will culminate in a proposal that will be submitted to USAID in August, 1997.

Problem Model

Africa is a dry continent with about two-thirds of the land area being arid or semi-arid. Very little of the arid zone is arable and in much of the semi-arid zone, agriculture is problematic. Thus, much of the continent is suitable only for livestock production and/or wildlife conservation. This is especially true in the dry parts of East Africa where climate patterns make cultivation difficult. Droughts occur with high frequency and the East African bimodal rainfall regime is unfavorable for crop production (Pratt and Gwynne 1977, Ellis and Galvin 1994). Pastoralism or extensive livestock herding is the most prevalent form of land use in East Africa in terms of land area utilized. These pastoral regions also support some of the largest and most viable wildlife populations in Africa. It seems clear that traditional pastoral livestock production has been highly compatible with wildlife conservation, but this compatible interaction is showing signs of disintegration of parts of East Africa. Spatial components of pastoral ecosystems have been disrupted by competing forms of land use, with negative implications for ecosystem persistence (Coughenour 1991). Pastoralists who have lived with wildlife for centuries often reap little benefit from the income which wildlife generates through ecotourism (Norton-Griffiths 1995). Although the idea that livestock production and wildlife conservation are compatible is shared by many, and there are examples of successful integration (Western 1982, Cumming 1991), there are also examples where compatible associations of pastoralism and wildlife seem to be deteriorating (Arhem 1985, Galvin 1995).

There is a need for both landscape and regional level analyses of interactions between pastoralists and their environment. Assessments at the landscape level are essential since that is the scale at which livestock, wildlife and environment interact, and land use problems can be solved through community-based conservation and integrated conservation and development programs. Additionally, regional level assessments of broad-scale geographic patterns of biodiversity and pastoral land use are needed for policy formulation by national and international governmental and non-governmental. For example, regional conservation strategies are increasingly being formulated through: GAP analyses, i.e. identification of biodiversity hotspots and their protection status; the sizes and connectivities of wildlife reserves (Scott et al. 1993); large-scale metapopulations; migration corridors; and related opportunities for preserving genetic diversity (Harris 1984, Hansen et al. 1993). More fundamentally, comparative studies among landscapes across the region lead to more generally applicable results, and form a firmer basis for extrapolation.

Goals and Specific Objectives

Our ultimate goal is to improve prospects for developing productive and sustainable pastoral systems which also conserve biodiversity, wildlife, and ecosystem services. We share the conviction that extensive livestock production and wildlife conservation can be compatible enterprises, lending support to the welfare of pastoral people while also conserving biodiversity. However our experience in East Africa has shown that compatibility requires careful management, and a policy framework which is sensitive to the needs of both pastoralists and wildlife. We propose to use our many years of interdisciplinary experience in East Africa and our technological expertise to devise an integrative system for assessment and ecosystem management, designed not only to analyze and simulate the probable effects of alternative policies and management strategies, but also, to be structured as an experimental system through which stakeholders can interact to explore the potential results of their diverse and sometimes divergent objectives.

Our goals for the CRSP research project which we will propose, following the initial one-year assessment, will center on the development of a user-friendly decision support system, which will be designed to deal with realistic policy and management concerns expressed by our African counterparts. The system will be implemented to provide management and policy scenarios for specific regions, with the joint objectives of: 1) improving the economic and nutritional welfare of pastoralists, 2) conserving wildlife populations, and 3) conserving biodiversity.

Our immediate objective is to develop a protocol which combines integrative modeling, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS) technologies, field methods for biodiversity appraisal, and methods for assessing pastoral land use, nutrition, and household economics. The proposed approach will start with the SAVANNA modeling system, a GIS-based simulation system originally developed for the Turkana pastoral ecosystem in northern Kenya (Coughenour 1991,1992,1993, Ellis et al. 1993). This model builds upon concepts and methods used to assess energy flow through a spatially extensive pastoral ecosystem (Coughenour et al. 1985). The spatially explicit model simulates plant growth, and ungulate foraging, production, populations, and spatial distributions. During the initial one-year assessment we aim to create an interdisciplinary team of U.S. and East African scientists, managers and other stakeholders which will develop an analytical system through which alternative policy and management strategies can be objectively explored and debated (see Assessment Team Members). Each member of the team will be responsible for developing a team of East African counterparts to assess and modify the integrative assessment and modeling system (IAMS) to fit selected regions in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. The assessment team research will focus on a review of the SAVANNA system, its potential application, data requirements, and necessary modifications to be useful as an integrative management tool.

In our assessment team research, and our anticipated full proposal, we will focus on study sites where there has been a long history of research, with involvement and familiarity by assessment team members. We suggest the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA)/Loliondo Game Reserve/Serengeti National Park Region as the primary intensive study area for the development of the IAMS. This is an ideal test area to study and understand the interactions between resident Masaii pastoralists, their livestock, and one of the largest concentrations of wildlife in the world (Arhem 1985, Perkin 1995). We have recently conducted preliminary research in the area looking at how current conservation policies affect Maasai pastoral land use patterns, and how these in turn, influenced human health and economy (McCabe 1995, Galvin 1995). We have conducted research on Serengeti plants, and have applied ecosystem modeling there (eg. Coughenour et al. 1983, 1985). We also suggest the southern portion of Turkana District, Kenya, including the recently formed South Turkana Nature Reserve, as a second intensive study site, as we have a long history of research there (eg. Coughenour et al. 1985, Galvin 1992, McCabe 1987, 1990, Reid and Ellis 1995). In our subsequent full proposal we will advance other intensive sites in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia.

Assessment Team Members and Institutional Participants

A simple conceptual model is used here to determine appropriate assessment team members. The components of the proposed assessment (Figure 1) are in boxes and the tasks for research correspond to the interactions between the components. Assessing interactions between livestock and the environment demands integration of the four major components, through specific studies of their interactions. The team/task leaders from Colorado State University include: Dr. Dennis Child - rangeland plant ecology; Dr. David Swift - wildlife interactions; Dr. Kathleen Galvin and Dr. Ann Magennis - pastoral land use, economy, health and nutrition; Dr. Larry Rittenhouse - livestock production, distribution, and spatial plant-herbivore interactions; and Dr. James DeMartini and Dr. Paul Rwambo - livestock and wildlife disease. Dr. Michael Coughenour will lead the modeling and DSS efforts, and will be responsible for overall project integration. Many of these team members have interdisciplinary expertise which will promote collaboration and integration. Child has experience in livestock as well as vegetation. Swift has studied livestock production as well as wildlife. Coughenour has experience in vegetation, soils, wildlife, and pastoralism. Galvin has considerable experience integrating anthropological and ecological studies.

At this point, we have solicited interest and support for this project from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI, an IARC of the CGIAR) (see attached letter), and particularly their Impact Assessment Team. This group, especially Dr. Robin Reid and Russ Kruska, has considerable expertise in analysis of large-scale GIS and in assessment of the role of disease interactions between wildlife and livestock in limiting livestock production (Kruska et al. 1995). Dr. Reid will lead our GIS/RS studies at both local and regional scales. Reid has experience in plant ecology as well as GIS and land use studies. We have also received a letter of interest (see attached) from Dr. James Else who is with the Uganda Ministry of Tourism. He is involved in developing a GIS-based DSS for looking at livestock-wildlife interactions in Uganda. We have been in contact with the Inyuat e-Maa, the Maasai Pastoralist Development Organization in Arusha, Tanzania prior to preparation of this proposal (see attached letter), and plan to fully explore their role as assessment team members. The Inyuat e-Maa also have a chapter in the Loliondo District near the NCA.

We have a considerable amount of team-building yet to accomplish, and we aim to broaden our team to include other members from the East African region which will contribute effectively to our assessment. We will build the team based upon development needs at the local, national, and regional levels. In Tanzania we will solicit the interest of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority (NCAA, Immanuel Chausi, Conservator), Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA) Management Planning Project, Serengeti Wildlife Research Institute (SWRI), Mweke University, University of Dar es Salaam, the African Wildlife Foundation (AWF) Community Conservation Service, and the Serengeti Regional Conservation Strategy (Mbano et al. 1995). In Kenya we will work largely through the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), and ILRI. We will also explore collaboration with the Biological Resources Program at the National Museums of Kenya (NMK), the University of Nairobi, and the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS). We will contact experts from the former MAB Integrated Project on Arid Lands (IPAL) in Marsabit, Kenya. Through ILRI and Dr. James Else we will make further contacts in Ethiopia and Uganda. We are optimistic that we can draw upon the expertise in community-based conservation and multispecies landuse that has been developed in Zimbabwe (Cumming 1991). Important NGO's in the region to be contacted include AWF, IUCN, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and Frankfurt Zoological Society. We will explore cross-linkages with the USAID-funded Biodiversity Support Program (BSP) - Africa Regional Program.

Project Description

The assessment team in conjunction with our East African partners will, through two workshops in East Africa, further design the research agenda, design the DSS and decide how to provide DSS analysis and assessment procedures for policy and land use analysis for optimizing human welfare and biodiversity in ecosystems which support wildlife, livestock, and biotic diversity.

An initial conceptual model (Figure 2) depicts the iterative process by which the data from the field and RS/GIS studies could be used in the SAVANNA-GIS model and decision support system (DSS). Spatial data on pastoral ranges, wildlife movements, and vegetation biodiversity are central to the assessment. The spatial simulation model will be used to generate alternative scenarios of land use, responses to policy, and climatic variability. The DSS analysis and assessments will be used in policy and land use analyses, and the assessment results will feed-back onto the assessment studies and modeling. Community level inputs into the assessment will be elicited from the outset. Community feedback about the implementation will be elicited, and a new assessment will be conducted accounting for the feedback. This approach is similar to the adaptive management process which is increasingly used in wildlife management, but with the added component of stakeholder participation. Capacity building would be an important outcome - we believe the methodology can be transferred to African resource managers through graduate student training and other educational opportunities.

Regional level assessments of interactions between pastoralists and their environment will be accomplished through cross-site comparisons among landscape scale study sites, through regional level GIS/RS analyses, and by applying the SAVANNA-GIS model at a regional scale. A regional network will be formed among the landscape scale sites, government and non-government agencies, and research and monitoring programs conducting research relevant to the regional analyses.

The approach for selecting team members will be to make contacts in writing, fax, or email, invite representatives to the workshops, or arrange to meet prior to or after the workshops at their sites. The team members will be selected on the basis of their level of interest and commitment to collaborative research, and the needs of the assessment process.

The workshops will focus on problem assessment, and identifying how team members will work together to contribute to the problem model development and implementation (eg. Fig. 1). The current assessment implementation model (eg. Fig. 2) will be presented, including a review of the SAVANNA-GIS model and its inputs, outputs, and proposed means of implementation. The model discussions will serve to integrate and codify various components of the overall assessment. The IMAS will evolve through each workshop. Each of the assessment team members will be asked to conduct a problem analysis, to propose methods for implementing their disciplinary studies in the context of the interdisciplinary, community-based conservation program. The team members will be asked to make contacts and obtain inputs from potential collaborators and team members. The problem analysis will include identification of critical information needs, how their studies fit into the broader IMAS, methods of transferring information among collaborators, and methods of building capacity through education, outreach and stakeholder participation. Feedback from other team members, and from invited African stakeholders and collaborators will be elicited throughout the workshops. A call for written input into the process will also be circulated to stakeholders and collaborators after the first workshop, and in time for discussion at the second workshop.

Anticipated Results and Dissemination of Results

The assessment team formation process will produce several results. By the end of the process we anticipate that the IMAS for solving the problem model will have received considerable thought, input from stakeholders, and will have evolved to a stage where it can be implemented at selected study sites. Of course, a team will be assembled, comprised of participants who can best contribute to the goals and objectives of the collaborative research. We will have made many new contacts in the East African region, and will have constructed a network of interaction among projects and programs working on related topics. The synergism of this network should provide far-reaching benefits for the participants, as well as the larger pastoral development community.

The research proposal that will be developed as a product of these efforts will include provisions for disseminating research findings to a broad audience in the East African region. The dissemination will be via implementation at several study sites over the region, by coordinating activities such as workshops and symposia, by substantial graduate student training and capacity building, and by effective communication with local, national, and regional organizations. We will aim to publish in the open literature, results of the team building process and problem model evolution and implementation.

Evaluation of the Assessment Process and Potential Impact

The proposal that will be developed for the assessment research will include evaluative activities to measure the assessment team's progress in model development and team integration. These will likely include provisions to assemble independent panels of experts to review our progress. We expect also to receive considerable evaluative information from participants and stakeholders throughout the entire adaptive process. Indeed, evaluative activities will be built into the feedback process of the anticipated assessment framework.

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