KWS Guest House, 8 July 1998

Summary proceedings

Present
Albert Mwangi, ACC
David Western, KWS
Evans Mwangi, KWS
Helen Gichohi, ACC
Helida Oyieke, NMK
James G. Else, Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Uganda
Jenesio I. Kinyamario, Department of Botany, University of Nairobi
John Waithaka, KWS
Michael B. Coughenour, Colorado State University
Michael Rainy, Bush Homes of East Africa
Robin S. Reid, ILRI

Also distribute to:
David J. Campbell, Michigan State University
E C Njuguna, DRSRS
Mohamed Said, DRSRS

Deliberations kicked off with self introductions and an brief eposè of each participant's professional background. Dr. Western introduced the subject matter of the workshop with a background of savanna ecology and the value of long term monitoring data in demonstrating change and how it occurs as a result of various factors such as human settlement, cultivation, grazing, fire etc.

He outlined the genesis of the idea to develop a model for the Kenyan savanna using DRSRS type data, originally as a PhD project, but later as a much broader endeavor. He further outlined KWS' keen interest to identify what creates, maintains and threatens biological diversity, and the desire to make good biology, along with sociology and economics, the basis for good conservation. He made reference to the absolute need to integrate different ecological components as highlighted in the Wildlife Policy, and the need to devolve certain aspects of the work to other agencies that have a comparative advantage in specific areas. The Minimum Conservation Area (MCA) approach that KWS is currently developing is an attempt at setting up a logical framework for this.

There was a general discussion on the value of ecological modeling. Its virtues were briefly enumerated as allowing us to anticipate future changes on the basis of past events, and providing opportunity to offset some of the expected pressures. Mike Coughenour underscored the underlying common themes and interests among various parties present and expressed hope that the Integrated Modeling and Assessment System (IMAS) proposed under the Collaborative Research Support Program (CRSP) would develop into a decision system. There was a general observation about how far both modeling and GIS have come in the last 10 years, enhancing synergism in bringing about an understanding of the spatial aspects of pastoralism, wildlife and land use. This discussion was followed by a presentation of the MCA concept by John Waithaka.

Major points of agreement

There is need for as much institutional collaboration as possible so as to overcome deficiencies in funding and expertise. The need to include socio-economic data in the development of any models was stressed, given that with significant changes in land tenure over the last 30 years, the wildlife resource is being seriously undervalued. A new opportunity now presents itself to set up conservation trusts and enter into easements with individual landowners.

Agreement was reached that the MCA concept presented the framework for conservation in Kenya and a sound basis for partnership. Its finer details would follow in a process of consultation with other agencies on biological hotspots, distribution of lower taxa, invertebrates, birds etc. The assumption right now is that by conserving habitats, all others biological entities would be included. The MCA provides a rational basis for what KWS should do where, given limited resources. Modeling will be a vital tool in putting together this concept.

Agreed: that land use change is the best indicator of habitat change and gives the most important variable for modeling MCA. Human population change is a good surrogate. The distribution of surface water and rainfall seasonality were suggested as other important variables.

A brief discussion followed on the sensitivity of IMAS to heterogeneity in spatial characteristics and the need to integrate more anchor points so as to build in greater robustness and confidence in extrapolation. Further discussion focused on the three levels at which the ecosystem modeling effort could be directed, the macro level (East Africa), a middle level (e.g. Kajiado), and micro level (e.g. Amboseli).

Agreed: to deal with both the macro and micro levels. Modeling at the micro level would benefit from the availability of detailed data for a few areas while the macro level would make a significant contribution to the East African Cooperation initiatives in conservation. Any modeling attempts must remain within the limits of possibility as data availability and wide ecological gradients could constrain efforts.

Agreed: it would be desirable to see the MCA concept spread across to Tanzania and Uganda since donors are interested to support activities within the framework of the East African Cooperation. CRSP would be able to tackle this macro level. The EAC would be encouraged to see how best the MCA could be extended to Tanzania and Uganda as the way to define areas of conservation priority.

Agreed: Robin Reid would work with KWS staff to superimpose the UN human population and DRSRS wildlife distribution data she has been dealing with on the MCA and flag future pressure points. Also to evaluate the possibility of doing the same for all of East Africa. Robin was also requested to help set a date for presenting these ideas to the EAC, and she requested time to reflect on it a little more.

The afternoon session kicked off with a presentation of the background to the CRSP project by Michael Coughenour. This included a detailed account of the SAVANNA model and its application to support decision making in various North American national parks. Data requirements and availability were discussed at some length. The rest of the discussion focused on Kajiado as a possible study site. Data for Kajiado are widely available at DRSRS, ACC, ILRI, NMK, and the UON in form of various graduate theses. Some earlier studies by Casebeer and FAO would yield essential data for the study. On a micro scale, detailed data for Ilkisongo are available for nearly 30 years from Dr Western's uninterrupted ecological monitoring program, covering about a third of Kajiado. More data on socio economics are available from the ACC and MSU collaboration.

Agreed: Amboseli provides a perfect and unique opportunity for modeling on a fine scale.

Agreed: working with ACC, MSU, and David Western's project, CRSP would develop a proposal for modeling the Amboseli site specific data, possibly to emerge as two or three projects, or a full time PhD study.

Reference was made to work done on the Tanzanian side of the border in the 1960s and 1970s by Kahurananga. Surface water has since been exterminated through various activities and the Tanzanian authorities would like to restore this to stimulate tourism. A suggestion was made that the model could be extended to this area and be used to predict the results of turning the tap back on.

Agreed: CRSP would link up with DRSRS, ILRI, NMK, ACC and KWS in developing the funding proposal for presentation to prospective donors, with an aim of having things in place by September 1998. Michael Coughenour and David Campbell would link up while in the US to develop the concept, and David Western would lead in pulling together the Kenya based institutions.

The rest of the session was devoted to discussion on possible sources of funds. At the macro level, USAID, MacArthur Foundation, REDSOL, the EU and GEF Medium Grants Program were identified as possible donors. USAID, MacArthur Foundation, Ford Foundation and WCS were identified as possible sources of support at the micro level.

Agreed: There will be another meeting to make presentations to donors to be held on Tuesday 8 September 1998. Those present at this workshop would meet to go over details on the previous Monday afternoon (7 September).

Agreed: the concept paper would be 3-5 pages in length, inclusive of a budget.

Agreed: KWS and CRSP would enter into a Memorandum of Understanding to facilitate the emerging collaboration.