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INTEGRATED MODELING AND ASSESSMENT FOR BALANCING PASTORAL FOOD SECURITY, WILDLIFE CONSERVATION, AND ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY IN EAST AFRICA ABSTRACT An international team has been formed to develop a system to assess livestock-environment interactions and conserve wildlife and biodiversity in the pastoral ecosystems of East Africa. The interdisciplinary team is comprised of U.S. and East African scientists, managers, and stakeholders. Two workshops and numerous meetings were held in East Africa to obtain regional input on the problem model and the assessment approach. There is strong support for an integrated approach to conserving natural resources in East African pastoral ecosystems. We propose to develop an integrated modeling and assessment system (IMAS) that will integrate computer modeling, geographic information systems, remote sensing, and field studies to provide the information and understanding necessary to conserve biodiversity, wildlife, and ecosystem integrity while increasing pastoral food security. The system will enable alternative policy and management strategies to be objectively explored, debated, implemented, and reassessed. Stakeholder involvement will be elicited from the outset. The IMAS will be based upon an existing spatial-dynamic ecosystem model called SAVANNA, which was originally developed for a pastoral ecosystem in northern Kenya. The model simulates plant growth responses to soil, weather, and herbivory; foraging, energetic status, and population sizes of both wild and domestic herbivores; and energy flows to humans. During this research a user interface, a human ecology/economics, and animal disease components will be developed. The model will be capable of predicting interactions between livestock and wildlife in terms of spatial-dynamic competition for forage and disease transmission and effects. The model as well as the IMAS field studies will quantify the impacts of land tenure, enterprise scale, and conservation policy on four objective functions: livestock production, pastoral welfare, wildlife, and ecosystem integrity. The IMAS will be implemented at four sites during the initial 3 years of the study. These will include: Kajiado District, Kenya; Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Loliondo in Tanzania; the region around Lake Mburo National Park in Uganda; and the region of Tarangire National Park and Simanjiro Plains in Tanzania. In the later half of the study the IMAS could be implemented at 3-4 additional sites with increased participation by regional personnel. Candidate sites thus far include Laikipia, Marsabit, and Turkana Districts in Kenya, Karamoja District in Uganda, and the region of Awash National Park in Ethiopia. Regional level analyses will be conducted using GIS and simulation modeling. These regional analyses will be used to identify areas of high and low conflicts between pastoralists and wildlife, the economic costs of conflicts and the benefits of their solutions, and appropriate policies for mitigating and preventing unfavorable pastoral-wildlife interactions in an era of rapid land use changes, human population growth, and modernization. A considerable effort will be devoted to training, mostly
within the region. Three Ph.D.s, and 6 M.Sc. degrees will be supported.
In addition there will be 120 months of support for field training of students
and others, 3 workshops, and 2 full-time positions for 4 different GIS
and modeling trainees, and one full-time post-doc. Training will occur
at the local level through citizen participation.
PROBLEM MODEL Global Problem Model The problem model recognizes many needs for establishing a more appropriate and sustainable balance between pastoral food security and natural resource conservation in East Africa. The problem model has evolved considerably through several months of African regional collaboration and input, including two workshops, many meetings with individuals in East Africa, and many assessment team meetings in the U.S. Pastoralism or extensive livestock herding is the most prevalent form of land use in East Africa in terms of land area utilized. These pastoral regions also support some of the largest and most viable wildlife populations in Africa. Traditional pastoral livestock production has been highly compatible with wildlife conservation, but this compatible interaction is showing signs of disintegration in many parts of East Africa. Livestock and wildlife are viewed as competitors for limiting forage. Livestock are seen as spreading disease into wildlife, and wildlife are seen as spreading disease into livestock. Spatial components of pastoral ecosystems have been disrupted by competing forms of land use, with negative implications for ecosystem persistence (Coughenour 1991). Pastoral movements have been increasingly restricted by game reserves, agriculture, land subdivision, and privatization. Pastoralists who have lived with wildlife for centuries often reap little benefit from the income which wildlife generates through ecotourism (Norton-Griffiths 1995). Although the idea that livestock production and wildlife conservation are compatible is shared by many, and there are examples of successful integration (Western 1982, Cumming 1991), there are many examples where compatible associations of pastoralism and wildlife seem to be deteriorating (Arhem 1985, Galvin 1995). There is a need to establish a more appropriate and sustainable balance between food security and natural resource conservation in the pastoral regions of East Africa. Ecologically unsound livestock development schemes, coupled with increased human population densities have often led to overgrazing and environmental degradation (Coughenour 1991). The results for pastoral populations has been a decline in economic welfare and chronic states of undernutrition (Galvin 1988, 1992, 1997, Galvin et.al. 1994). Alarming decreases in livestock and wildlife over the last two decades (Otichello et al. 1997) suggest that rangeland carrying capacity has declined, possibly because there has been progressive rangeland degradation (Rainy and Worden 1997), resulting from excessive livestock densities and restricted livestock movements. Unfortunately, little data conclusively shows that range production has declined. Efforts to simply maximize livestock production through ranching, banking, or other schemes, have backfired because of a lack of understanding of livestock-wildlife interactions, failure to assess the direct and indirect effects of livestock development on wildlife and the environment, failure to recognize the importance of wildlife for economic development and long-term ecological viability in this region, and failure to recognize the ecologically adaptive features of traditional pastoralism. Livestock development in this region cannot occur without integrated assessments of livestock-wildlife interactions and resultant effects on human welfare. Wildlife conservation and pastoralism are potentially complementary land uses. Pastoralists and wildlife have similar requirements for large ranges, opportunistic movements, water sources, dry season grazing areas, and dietary diversity. They also have several common enemies including land and water preemption by cultivation and irrigation, lack of rights to access land, and lack of economic returns from wildlife conservation. Pastoralists and wildlife have three main conflicts - competition for resources, disease, and damage. The benefits arising from compatibilities of the two land uses can offset the costs of conflicts if ways can be found to accrue benefits from conservation. Pastoralism has considerable economic value which has not been factored into integrated assessments thus far. The combination of pastoralism and wildlife may prove to be an economically successful land use, from both a local and national perspective. This is because pastoralism is more compatable with wildlife than other forms of land use, and because wildlife is an economically important, and a premier generator of foreign revenue. The requisite ecological characteristics of intact pastoral ecosystems, such as ability to move over large areas and access key seasonal grazing areas must be fully recognized, and either conserved or emulated for successful combined use. Pastoralism was a sustainable land use under free access to grazing lands, but the reality is that now, land use is constrained. We propose that these constraints can be alleviated through strategic management and policy. The IMAS which we propose will be aimed at the identification of these effective strategies. Co-existence of wildlife and livestock populations provide conditions that are favorable for transmission of viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease agents among wild ruminants, cattle, sheep, goats and camels. Resulting disease adversely affects livestock and pastoral welfare, and wildlife. Uncontrolled and unmonitored movements of livestock through trade routes and migratory responses to drought and civil strife, often across international boundaries, contribute to the potential for rapid disease spread to other livestock herds, and to wildlife. Major diseases of wildlife that constrain livestock productivity include wildebeest-derived malignant catarrhal fever, buffalo-associated corridor disease (theileriosis), trypanosomiasis, foot-and-mouth disease, and rinderpest. Although rinderpest is principally maintained in cattle, epidemics with high mortality have recently been observed in wildlife in Southern Kenya and Northern Tanzania. Four diseases are especially significant to livestock-wildlife interactions, with respect to economic importance, agent type, mode of transmission, species affected, available data and collaborative research possibilities in the U.S. These include rinderpest, malignant catarrhal fever (MCF), corridor disease (bovine theileriosis, East Coast fever (ECF), and brucellosis. After several years of quiescence, there have been several recent outbreaks of rinderpest in East Africa, including southern Kenya and northern Tanzania. Wildebeest serve as inapparent carriers of MCF and high mortality occurs in affected cattle. MCF is problem in Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Loliondo, Tanzania. MCF occurs in North America where sheep and goats may serve as reservoir and it is currently a problem in North American bison herds. Brucellosis is receiving much attention in Yellowstone National Park bison, as it constrains efforts to eradicate the infection from livestock populations nationally. The problem model is summarized in Figure 1. Land-use interacts with ecosystem structure and dynamics through such processes as primary and secondary production, which are in turn driven by climate. Development and conservation policy both influence land-use, with subsequent impacts on the ecosystem, pastoral welfare, livestock production, wildlife conservation efforts, and ecosystem integrity. Traditional culture influences land-use. However, land management, modernization and increasing interaction with society at local through regional scales are also affecting land-use, with subsequent impacts on the variables mentioned above. At two regional workshops, a multi-criteria evaluation process was used to identify three sites for initial IMAS application. All three of the sites have good data bases and high likelihoods of successful application. It was decided that the Ngorongoro Conservation Area - Loliondo sector of the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem would be the best example of traditional pastoralism, pastoral-wildlife coexistence, and pastoral-conservation conflicts. Kajiado District is an excellent opportunity to examine situations ranging from small private to large group ranches. Lake Mburo is a good example of ranching and dairying schemes adjacent to a national park. Other sites of high interest were identified at the workshops, including Laikipia (Kenya), Tarangire-Simanjiro (Tanzania), Karamoja-Turkana (Uganda-Kenya), Awash (Ethiopia), and Katavi-Rukwa Valley (Tanzania). Selection among these other sites will require further problem analysis, and indications of demand from the potential end users. At an extremely late hour in the assessment process, we learned that the Tanzanian AID Mission of USAID has just initiated a large Environment and Natural Resources study in the Tarangire-Simanjiro Plains Region. The objectives of our project fall completely within the Strategic Objective which led to the formulation of this project. The possibilities for synergism between our effort and that of the Mission are substantial. Tarangire was identified as a potential study site for our project. Given this new information, we are now aiming to apply the IMAS at Tarangire-Simanjiro during the first 3 years of our study, assuming that the Mission's efforts there will lessen demands from CRSP project resources, thereby making it more feasible within the time frame. Site-Specific Problem Models Kajiado District, Kenya Kajiado District, Kenya is the site of one of the great experiments in international livestock development. In the late 1960's, the Government of Kenya requested, and the World Bank implemented the Kenya Livestock Development Program (KDLP), a district-wide project aimed at promoting commercial livestock production among the Maasai herders of Kajiado. The principal instrument was land adjudication; providing freehold title to groups of Maasai who organized themselves into group ranches. The most prominent effect of group ranch formation, reduction of the spatial scale of grazing land exploitation, was noted by Grandin et al. (1991) as follows: "Thus from having potentially free access to 310,000 ha of grazing (before group ranch formation), each Kapuitei producer has been restricted to only one twentieth of that area". Furthermore, even though many relatively large group ranches (ranging in size from 3000 ha to 151,000 ha) continue to operate in Kajiado, many others have undergone subdivision into individual land-holdings of roughly 10-60 ha in size. In addition, 378 private ranches have been adjudicated since the project began: these average about 800 ha, although some are as large as 2000-3000 ha (Jacobs 1984). Although group ranch formation has achieved some of the original program objectives, the unanticipated impacts in Kajiado probably outweigh those envisioned by the KLDP planners. On the positive side, livestock production has increased somewhat over the past 30 years, but not as much as anticipated. Likewise, range degradation is thought to be limited in scope and patchy, while wildlife abundance has not plummeted as has occurred in much of Kenya. On the negative side, cattle/ human ratios have gone from about 14/person in the early 60's to about 3/person in the late 1980's. This is mainly a result of human population growth while livestock numbers have fluctuated or expanded rather slowly. Human nutritional status is chronically low for all age/sex and wealth groups (Nestel 1985, Homewood 1992). Other problems include increasing water shortages, for both domestic use and livestock; conversion of important dry season grazing resources to marginal rainfed crop production, and losses of wildlife biodiversity, associated with reductions in migratory species. Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania The Greater Serengeti Ecosystem (GSE) is comprised of Serengeti National Park, Ngorongoro Conservation Area and, Loliondo District, Maswa Game Reserve, and the Maasai Mara National Park, Kenya. Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) is a multiple use area where wildlife , Maasai pastoralists and their livestock herds reside under the conservation and land use policies of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority. In Loliondo, Maasai, livestock and wildlife co-inhabit an area where land use is not restricted by local land use policies. The most important factors affecting land use include an increasing human population, conservation policies and disease interactions. Land use by pastoralists, which includes livestock production and some agriculture and wildlife land use are all affected by these factors. Land use influences land cover and problems of land cover in this area include bush encroachment and increases in certain undesirable plant species. Livestock and wildlife condition, pastoral welfare and ecosystem integrity are ultimately affected by these factors and their processes. Land use pressures in the Serengeti Regional Ecosystem of Tanzania are growing rapidly (Mbano et al. 1995). Pastoralists in the NCA share grazing areas with Serengeti migratory wildebeest and zebra. Pastoral population densities in the NCA nearly tripled 1966-1988 (Perkin 1995). Many have settled, and are cultivating small plots. In the Maswa Game Reserve, increases in agro-pastoral populations have led to increased poaching, unplanned fires, and illegal tree-cutting (Campbell and Hofer 1995, Mbano et al. 1995). There is increasing conversion of pastoral rangelands and associated wildlife grazing areas to large-scale cultivation (Norton-Griffiths 1995). Tourist numbers have increased nearly 3-fold since 1987 and many new lodges and camps have been built (Sinclair 1995). Vehicular traffic has increased markedly (Perkin 1995, NCAA 1996). Massive increases in wildebeest numbers 1960-1980 diminished NCA Maasai grazing lands. Maasai herders state that the traditional migratory herding pattern of moving down to the Serengeti plains for the wet season has been disrupted by the wildebeest expansion. Maasai cattle are now unable to take advantage of the nutritious grazing resources of the lowlands, resulting in lowered production and weakened animals which are more prone to other livestock diseases (McCabe 1995). Wildebeest transmit malignant catarrhal fever (MCF) to the cattle, which is fatal. NCA Maasai and their supporters have claimed for a long time that the policies of the NCA Authority have undermined their welfare principally through restrictions on land use. Maasai have also stated that the NCAA are responsible for a downward spiral of economic deprivation (Arhem 1985). Lake Mburo National Park Region, Uganda The Lake Mburo National Park Region consists of a national park and adjoining group ranches. It is biologically diverse and wildlife are common. Originally, pastoralists and wildlife coexisted in the area in and around the national park. During the Colonial Era, controlled hunting was instituted. During the 1960s, what is today designated as the National Park was designated as a game reserve, and a livestock improvement program and ranching scheme were introduced in the surrounding areas. In 1983, Lake Mburo was designated as a National Park, and the pastoral inhabitants were removed from the land, to be "resettled" on the adjacent ranches. Furthermore, an agricultural development scheme has been established near the park. Various land tenure arrangements, that is, a national park, an agricultural development scheme and ranching schemes, have negatively affected human welfare, livestock production, wildlife conservation and ecosystem integrity. The park boundaries have created problems with regard to access to land and importantly, access to water for both people and livestock. This has implications for livestock production and human welfare. Lack of mobility of livestock has produced ecosystem degradation. Wildlife numbers have steadily declined since the 1980's, especially in the areas immediately outside the National Park. This has been attributed largely to hunting (and poaching) and loss of habitat. Wildlife that do leave the confines of the national park travel to the agricultural development scheme, a source of great conflict. Furthermore, there is an issue of disease transmission between humans, livestock, and wildlife, specifically foot and mouth, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and tick borne diseases in the area. Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania The Tarangire Ecosystem comprises a 20,000 km2
portion of the vast Maasai Steppe of Tanzania. Wildlife, including large
populations of elephant, move freely into and out of the 2,600 km2
Tarangire National Park. The park is a dry season grazing reserve for most
of the migratory wildlife in the region. Adjacent to the park to the east,
is the Simanjiro Plains Game Control Area. This region is characterized
by especially diverse and changing land use patterns. Pastoralism has been
the traditional land use on the 90% of the ecosystem outside the park.
Pastoralists are increasingly losing their land to agriculture and other
land uses. There is extensive mechanized cultivation in the region, particularly
of seed-beans. These cultivated areas are increasingly interfering with
migrations of wildlife and pastoral livestock. Wooded areas are increasingly
subject to deforestation for charcoal production, particularly in a band
south and west of Arusha town. Areas outside the park have been gazetted
as hunting blocks, the exclusive rights being leased to hunting concessions.
Human population densities are increasing rapidly and pastoralists are
increasingly compressed. As a result, there is a heightened potential for
overstocking.
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND TIME TABLE The IMAS Approach We will address the different facets of the problem through an integrated modeling and assessment system (IMAS) (Figure 2). The IMAS will be used to improve prospects for establishing an appropriate and sustainable balance between food security and natural resource conservation in the pastoral regions of East Africa. The assessment system will integrate computer modeling, geographic information systems, remote sensing, and field studies. The system will enable alternative policy and management strategies to be objectively explored, debated, implemented, and reassessed. Stakeholder involvement has been elicited from the outset. Regional level analyses for East Africa will be conducted using GIS, modeling, networking, and cross-site comparison to identify and prioritize areas of problematic interactions between pastoralists, wildlife, and the environment. For information to be useful, it must inform people about the implications of changes, and show linkages between cause and effect. What people need is information about the trade-offs of taking alternative courses of action. Why have the observed changes occurred? What can be done? Our proposed IMAS will enable people to make informed choices about alternate land-use strategies to select the one that is most viable. We will not simply provide information about change, we will provide both retrospective and prognostic information about the causes and implications of change under alternative scenarios of policy and management The IMAS will include empirical and data-based assessment procedures, linked to computer-based procedures, and land-use analyses. The IMAS will consider research conducted within the scope of our project as well as by parallel projects funded independently. Assessments will be made based upon modeling, and participatory involvement from stakeholders at the community level. The model will be run at scales which are relevant to local land managers. The results of the assessment could then be used by the end users such as land managers and policy analysts to develop environmentally and economically sustainable plans of resource utilization. Inventory and monitoring studies would measure the results The results would then evaluated at the community level, and the assessment will be modified accordingly. The core model of the IMAS, SAVANNA, is a spatial-dynamic ecosystem simulation model which was originally developed for pastoral ecological research in Turkana District, Kenya in the 1980's. (Coughenour 1991a, 1992, 1993). SAVANNA has been further developed for assessing elk, bison, and wild horse carrying capacity analyses in several prominent Parks in the Rocky Mtn. Region, with support from the National Park Service and USGS Biological Resource Division. A project has been initiated to use the model to aid management of bison and brucellosis in Yellowstone and Grand Teton N.P.s. SAVANNA simulates plant growth, soil water budgets, herbivore foraging, energetics, weight, population dynamics, and spatial distributions, pastoral herd management, and energy flows to pastoralists. Simulations are conducted for 5-100 year periods at a weekly time-step. GIS data are read into the model at the onset of each model run. The model is driven by multi-point weather data which are used to generate monthly precipitation and temperature maps. There are built-in capabilities for simulating competition and coexistence between wildlife and livestock, including responses to dynamic spatial distributions and overlaps, and competition for forage and water. Risk analyses can be performed by using the model to simulate stochastic variation in weather, unforseen events (e.g. disease outbreak, political disruption), and select model parameters. Numerous such runs provide a probability distribution of potential outcomes, which can be used to calculate risk. Development of the IMAS While the core model has already been developed, there are a number of tasks that need to be accomplished to develop the IMAS. User-friendly Computer Software Interface SAVANNA was first developed to be a research tool, rather than a user-friendly software package. A graphical user interface was developed for the model in 1993 by a team of software engineers working under contract for the Canadian Parks Service. The interface was based on a GIS programming language, and it provided menus for using and manipulating GIS data, getting GIS data in and out of the model, and running the model, without a having expertise in the technical aspects of GIS or the model. This interface demonstrated that the model could be made user-friendly, but was proprietary and only ran on UNIX workstations. A simple user-interface for the model which runs in Windows on PC's was developed more recently, but it only supports basic model applications. We will develop a user interface specifically for the IMAS. It will be customized to automatically run procedures for integrated assessment of pastoral ecosystems. There will be menus with options for running the model to assess pastoral livestock production and wildlife abundance under a range of scenarios defined by climate, land-use patterns, typical management strategies, and policies. The user will be able to pick among these, or develop new ones assisted by the program. Pastoral management strategies will be defined by rules which govern herd management, use of fire, and movement. Policies will be defined in terms of their effects on pastoral management options (eg. constraints on land-use) and interaction with national and international organizations (eg. price support, food relief, other intervention). The interface will contain a help system which guides the user through various uses in integrated assessment. Human Ecology-Economics Submodel The results of ecological changes or developmental innovations are felt primarily and most directly at the household level, in terms of changes in income, food security and nutritional status. Impacts also have to be assessed at the community and regional levels, because land-use and other decisions are often made at these levels as well as at the individual household level. The human ecology and economics component has to recognize these different levels. A major issue is to define the impacts that we wish to look at. At the household level, we clearly need to be able to carry out household resource and nutrition accounting. The economic analyses currently in SAVANNA will be expanded to study household cash flow, nutrition levels, productivity, and resource use. The household module must be able to handle multiple agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises. SAVANNA will be used to derive biophysical outputs in response to particular sets of inputs, which are then used in the household module to update state variables through time. Aggregation from the household level to the regional level can be done using a well-formulated household or agroecosystem typology. At the regional level, we need to look at impacts of changes in land use and economic activity on production, resource use, and nutritional status. An expanded SAVANNA model with more complex economics modules will be able to provide input-output coefficients that can be used in a number of other, more highly aggregated analytical frameworks For the benchmark sites, we will define a typology of pastoral and wildlife utilization systems, including mixtures of pastoralism, cultivation, tourism, and subsistence or commercial hunting. For each study area, we will define a simple typology of 3-6 production systems. The mixture of these systems in a study area will be defined by data, and plausible alternative scenarios. The model will scale-up to the study area response by simulating each of the system types, their contribution to the study area, and their possible interactions. The geographic distribution of each system type will need to be identified within each study on a statistical or geographic basis. Data required to set up representative households for each system type include (1) historical costs and prices; (2) resources available: land, capital, labor; (3) input-output relationships in terms of technical coefficients of production, related to inputs and the environment; (4) of changes in land use and economic activity production activities that are feasible for each system type. Disease Interactions Submodel A GIS-based disease submodule will be developed and linked to SAVANNA. It will be tested for selected diseases by conducting field surveys to assess cause-specific morbidity and mortality in populations of wild and domestic animals and humans, and used as part of the IMAS to identify and test strategies for minimizing the impact of disease on these populations. The model will account for the following parameters determining disease transmission in wildlife and livestock interactions: 1) population size and density ; 2) age/sex distribution; 3) herd immunity to specific disease agents; 4) population dynamics and offtakes; 5) interaction with carrier animals and vectors; 6) water/pasture availability, extent of wildlife-livestock animal contact, migrations and movement. The occurrence and impact of infectious and parasitic diseases depends on; virulence of the infectious agent and its persistence in the environment, number and distribution of competent vectors in the ecosystem. Population dynamics determine the proportion of the herd that is either susceptible or immune to the disease agent, and other factors. Employing a linked disease-SAVANNA model, we will predict the health consequences of alternative livestock and wildlife management strategies and disease control measures. Existing information for each disease will be evaluated to identify parameters for which data exist and those for which assumptions and estimates must be made. These parameters will include the impact of the disease on the host population, development of immunity or resistance, shedding, survival and transmission of the causative agent, vector biology, and existing disease control. A student on our project has already developed a disease model for brucellosis in bison. This work will be undertaken in Kenya and in Colorado by members of the disease subteam using available published information and expert consultants as necessary. The model will be tested using data collected from field surveys or outbreaks of disease. This will require identification and use of one or more of our worksites for each of the prototypic diseases. Through interviews of pastoralists, ranch and park managers, serological surveys, necropsy surveys of dying animals, and data available from collaborative projects, we will obtain objective data on the occurrence of each disease in the relevant species within a given geographic area. We will then compare the epizootiologic features of the disease with predictions based on the model and make necessary modifications. Range Ecology and Biodiversity Site-level studies will be designed to assess changes in vegetation composition and abundance, and to develop a response database for ecological responses to resource utilization. Changes in herbaceous layer composition, especially "invasion" of undesirable, unpalatable grasses are highly indicative of overstocking. Herbaceous-layer composition changes in response to climate, herbivory, fire, or soil nutrient status. Herbaceous composition and abundance will be sampled in relation to presumed patterns of herbivory and fire. Spatial nutrient redistribution, eg. through concentrations of defecating animals, is hypothesized to alter species composition. Rates of extraction, transport, and concentration of nutrients on the landscape will be assessed and modeled. Cause and effect for presence of undesirable, unpalatable grasses will be tested using grazing, fire and nutrient inputs as treatments. Woody cover, biomass, and composition will be sampled. Changes in woody cover are indicative of ecological trends in this region. Changes in woody cover may result from climate, fire, seed input, fuelwood or charcoal production, or herbivory. Observed changes will be related to these affects through a combination of field sampling, and modeling. Observed changes will be defined for Ecological Response Units (see definition in "Regionalization Plan"). The changes can then be used for both local and larger-scale assessments of combined ecological responses to livestock and wildlife. Site Level Assessments Adaptation of the IMAS to Specific Sites The computer-based modeling portion of IMAS will be adapted to 4 sites in the first 3 years. This process involves collation of spatial and non-spatial data sets. GIS data include maps of vegetation, land-use, animal distributions, fires, topography, hydrology, and soils. Non-spatial databases include: 1) weather data from all weather stations in the study region; 2) plant biomass dynamics for different habitat types; 3) soil texture and depth; 3) historical fire regimes; 4) historical wildlife and livestock population dynamics, removals, die-offs. A literature search must be conducted to identify existing information on model parameters, including those which govern plant growth, animal forage and nutritional requirements, and animal population processes, and human ecology. The model is adapted in a sequential process beginning with non-spatial runs of plants and soils, spatial runs of plants and soils, runs with specified animal numbers and distributions, runs with modeled animal numbers and distributions, and finally with humans. The model is tested against available data for plant biomass and animal population dynamics. Remote sensing data on vegetation greenness is used. The usefulness of the model is judged based on its ability to simulate observed data and patterns which are consistent with the knowledge of experts. Kajiado District, Kenya We hypothesize that: 1) the negative trends in ecological integrity, livestock production, and human welfare noted in the Problem Model are largely associated with small scale enterprises, including small private or group ranches and small (10 ha+) private holdings, and; 2) the larger private ranches and larger group ranches are associated with: superior livestock productivity, greater ecosystem integrity, more abundant wildlife, and higher living standards and greater food security among Maasai pastoralists. We also expect that grazing associations, now being formed among small scale livestock producers, will demonstrate improved indices of human welfare, livestock productivity and ecosystem integrity. We further hypothesize that the relationships between enterprise scale and the above highlighted outputs, will be significantly modified by ecosystem aridity, human population density and by proximity to markets and urban areas with employment opportunities. Kajiado District provides a unique opportunity to test this regionally important hypothesis. We will adapt the IMAS to Kajiado district, using the rich data base already developed by agencies of the Government of Kenya, by donor organizations and by others. We will then apply the IMAS to real policy and management issues in Kajiado and make the system available to end-users at both policy and management levels. Results will provide development-relevant information on the economic viability and ecological sustainability of small-scale intensified livestock operations, versus extensive larger-scale grazing associations and group ranch organizations, under arid to semi-arid range conditions in East Africa. Results will demonstrate the value of the policy level DSS to the government of Kenya, donor and NGO groups through a series of workshops and follow-up demonstrations. The management version of the DSS will be make available to pastoralists, ranch managers, and local agency personnel, by setting up, demonstrating, and applying the DSS through the Kajiado town headquarters of the Dutch ASAL program, and at other locations if adequate technical arrangements can be made. Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania We have examined the claims of the NCA Maasai with respect to the impacts of conservation policy on their land use and livestock holdings, their nutritional status and levels of income, and the effects of wildlife on Maasai land use, in a study supported by the National Science Foundation (Galvin and Ellis, PI's, 1991-1995) (e.g., Galvin 1995, Galvin et al. 1994, McCabe 1994, 1995). We have been funded (July 15, 1997) for a similar two year study in the Loliondo area through NSF (Galvin and Ellis, PI's, 1997-1998). Furthermore, Coughenour and Ellis, have been recommended for funding (Sept. 1, 1997) by NSF for a research project in Serengeti-Ngorongoro (1997-2000). SAVANNA modeling of vegetation responses to climate, herbivory, and humans, and vegetation mapping will be the main emphases of this work. This study will provide data sets and model parameterizations needed for the IMAS, so constitutes a significant source of leveraged funding. The IMAS will be adapted to simulate historic and current patterns of land use by the Maasai and by the NCA, to represent the degree of competition between livestock and wildlife for forage and usable habitat. Long-term changes in livestock and wildlife abundances, fire, and human wood utilization will be simulated, along with their combined impacts on the vegetation and soil. Lake Mburo National Park Region, Uganda With the assistance of the Ugandan Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities we will investigate the effects of land tenure issues on human welfare, wildlife conservation and ecosystem integrity in the Lake Mburo area. The IMAS will be used to look at optimum land use mixes. For example, we will evaluate the potential benefit of tourism in the National Park on local populations. This will be evaluated in terms of human welfare, wildlife conservation, and ecosystem integrity. The IMAS will provide information on the probable outcomes of alternative land use policies or alternative management strategies. This information will be useful at all levels of policy-making including national, regional, local, and the household. As is the case at the other sites, the information from the IMAS will be made available to grass-roots end-users and other managers to enable more informed decision-making. It is very likely that human/livestock/wildlife disease transmission is a problem in that area, as it is in many parts of Africa; particularly if it is cited as a problem. TB and brucellosis are common and important human problems in Africa. This will be a good site to study human disease we will do this collaboratively with WHO or other funding (there are many agencies). Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania The IMAS would be implemented in this region given close collaboration with the Tanzania Mission's USAID initiative, which in turn is linked to efforts of African Wildlife Foundation and the Wildlife Conservation Society in community-based conservation. There has been a considerable amount of research and donor activity in the area over the last few years, and the data sources are expected to be rich. The EU has funded the large University of Milano Tarangire Conservation Project (TCP) with aims similar to ours, including extensive use of GIS analyses and training. In comparison, our research team provides ecosystem modeling capability, expertise in pastoral anthropology and ecology, and expertise in large herbivore ecology. The IMAS will be used to assess current, historic, and alternative scenarios of land use, including different levels and spatial arrangements of cultivation, human settlements, wood cutting, hunting blocks and associated restrictions on pastoralists. The changes in land use are expected to show demonstrable impacts on pastoral welfare, and livestock-wildlife interactions in the model. The model will simulate ecological responses to changing resource use patterns, including the potential decline in range plant production, and declines in woody plants due to overuse relative to regrowth. The impacts of alternate land-use policies on pastoralists and the environment will be evaluated with the IMAS. Disease Studies We will test the hypothesis that disease-related losses will be no greater in mixed populations of livestock and wildlife than in livestock alone. We will select a study site which has cattle herders who are willing to participate in the study. Three to five herders with a total of 1,000 to 2,000 cattle grazing rangeland from which most wildlife have been extirpated and a similar group of herders who graze their animals throughout the year in the presence of wild ruminants will be identified. Cause-specific morbidity and mortality data will be obtained for both groups along with selected serological parameters during the two year study period. The data will be analyzed statistically and compared with output generated by SAVANNA. We will begin efforts in the second year to apply the disease submodel regionally in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. We will employ locally available information on disease occurrence supplemented by prospective surveys when necessary. We also will solicit input form local authorities with regard to their perception of disease priorities needing attention and possible approaches to their control. The IMAS will be employed to direct our efforts to present alternative scenarios for sustainable increases in livestock production or alternative management strategies that incorporate income from the wildlife resource Human Ecology and Economics Studies Measures of average income are often taken as the primary indicator of regional human welfare. However, income is not equally distributed among households nor are resources equally distributed among members of the same household. Consequently, there is a need to determine income stratification within regions and how this varies between regions. There is also increasing recognition of the need to include non-economic measures of welfare such as health or nutritional status within and among households, as key measures of welfare and development level (Cameron 1991, Martorell 1982, Pinstrup-Andersen et al. 1984, FAO 1982, Pacey and Payne 1985). To measure pastoral welfare we will measure: 1) food security; 2) access to services; 3) demography and nutritional status and 4) indigenous indicators of well-being. Food security is the ability of the household to access adequate quality and quantity of food through their own production or access through the market, or social support system (exchange, reciprocity, gifts, loans). Indicators of food security to be measured include; income, markets and wealth. Cash income is generated from various sources, including culling wild game for markets, selling livestock and/or milk and agricultural produce, off-farm income generated from wage labor, trade. Gender differences in cash generation and cash flow will be assessed to determine sex differences in food security. Non-cash income includes production of wild foods, crops, and livestock. Since some crops belong to women and others to men, we will monitor production by gender. Income also comes from food aid. Income is affected by markets. Pastoralists will be asked to ascertain their own wealth status, often the most accurate measure (cf. Galvin et al. 1994). We will measure for each site; market accessibility, prices, and food aid and its impact on the market. Wealth or economic status will be measured through access to land/grazing, livestock numbers and water accessibility. Access to services such as clean (potable) water, health services, security, education and infrastructure will be assessed and put in a GIS database. Access to services affects decisions people make about economic strategies and land use, thus they are important to pastoral well- being. Demographic data will be determined on household size and composition, and how households are distributed across the landscape. Nutritional status indicators are often correlated with economic status and level of development (Barrera 1990, Behrman 1990, Behrman and Wolfe 1987, Horton 1986, Huss-Ashmore and Johnston 1985). Anthropometric measures of nutritional status (height, weight, upper arm circumference, and triceps skinfolds) will be taken on a subsample of the population at the various sites. Pastoral representatives at the workshops suggested we monitor indigenous indicators of well- being and these might include (though they need to be ascertained at each site) access to land, livestock/herd size, number of children, "influence" or "power", or size of extended family. These are important because they influence land use management decisions. Monitoring, Impact Assessment, and Adaptive Management Through monitoring of management decisions and their impacts on the system, we will evaluate how the IMAS is being used, and the impacts it is having on people and natural resources. We will make comparisons against the state of the system prior to IMAS adoption to assess the impacts of our research. The same monitoring techniques will be useful to the stakeholders for revising their management tactics and policies, in a long-term process of adaptive management. A methodology is needed for monitoring changes in landscape-vegetation and wildlife status, while at the same time determining the impact of those changes on the well-being of a dynamic human population and their livestock. The stakeholders determine the extent to which their individual and collective needs are being met. At the same time, the stakeholders are monitoring the state of the system with regard to vegetation. Researchable issues can be addressed and testable hypothesis formulated based on the changes observed through monitoring. A set of indicators and sampling protocols will be developed which can be monitored using simple techniques. The indicators will be tied to predictive output variables from the IMAS to facilitate comparisons between predicted and observed changes. The indicators will address changes in vegetation, livestock number and condition, wildlife abundance and distribution, animal disease prevalence, and human welfare (nutrition, economics). Demand-Driven Approach A process will be established at the local level for enabling all stakeholders to meet their own needs. The process should allow stakeholders the opportunity to establish a common "vision" of a desired future condition (vegetation state/ecosystem state). In like manner the stakeholders would collaboratively decide a course of action to move the system in the direction of the desired state. The same group of stakeholders would determine if the management was moving the system away from or toward the desired future condition. The identification of potential users and information needs of users involves communication of model capabilities to individuals, groups, and local through international organizations, and identification of the information needs of potential users and assessment of the feasibility of providing such information with the model. To facilitate communication of model capabilities and identify information needs, and example of a "product" from the model would be used in group discussions and presentations. Questions could then be posed which speak to the various perceptions and needs of stakeholders. The IMAS could be used in an iterative process of conflict resolution and risk analysis, the goal of which would be to converge on a solution that all stakeholders can accept. The IMAS would be used to show the conflicts, risks, costs, and benefits to each stakeholder of multiple versions of their proposed solutions. The solutions would then be revised with the aim of converging on a solution that is most acceptable to all stakeholders. We will explore the integration of SAVANNA into a Structured Analysis Methodology (SAM) for stakeholders to identify their goals and objectives, and potential conflicts (R. Woodmansee, CSU, pers. comm.). Training, Information Dissemination Degrees: One American and one African student will receive Ph.D's conducting research completely devoted to this project. A third American Ph.D. student will develop a general GIS-based disease model, likely using data from brucellosis research in Yellowstone. We will support 6 students to obtain their M.Sc's in regional universities (Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, Sokoine, Makerere). Supervised research: We will support 120 person-months of supervised research in the field and computer lab. Research will be directed towards project objectives, but will provide resource managers, recent university graduates, and M.Sc. students real research experience. Apprenticeships: Spatial database and regional modeling objectives will be satisfied by recruiting two GIS-model trainees to work with scientists from the International Livestock Research Center (ILRI), Nairobi. In the first 1-2 years of the project, the GIS-modeling trainees will focus on database development. In the middle years of the project, the trainees will focus more on regional analysis and GIS scenario development. In the last years of the project, the focus will shift to model demonstration and eliciting feedback from stakeholders. Workshops: In the second three years of the project, at least two workshops will be held to demonstrate and teach the IMAS to stakeholders involved in the regional pastoral ecosystems. Workshops might be held at ILRI in Nairobi, or at regional universities. The University College of Lands and Architecture at Dar es Salaam has experience in, and has expressed an interest in hosting such training (A. Nikundiwe, Principle, pers. comm.). Workshops will provide the venue for getting the information initially to the managers. Pastoralist representatives at our workshops provided the impetus for this process and feel that the project's second objective, empowerment through knowledge, will be made available to them by these actions. Local-level training: Training at the local level provides linkages to additional learning, enhancement of lifeskills, and improvement in quality of life for citizens of the study area. Training and employment of local citizens for data collection can: (a) prepare people with skills and information to benefit themselves, their families and communities, (b) create awareness of ideal versus actual behavior, (3) involve citizens and thus limit misapprehensions of project activities and objectives, (4) address fears that information will be misused by regional and international level users to limit citizen's actions or take their land, (5) identify citizens to take on project-oriented responsibilities and higher-level training. Funds for supervised research mentioned above could be used to support a significant number of citizen participants. IMAS and model results will be made available for use at local information centers such as the Community Conservation Service Center run by AWF in Arusha (see attached letter of support). Model results will be disseminated in two forms. (1) As brochures and reports containing model outputs for different management and policy scenarios. The outputs will be expressed in terms of impacts on different stakeholder groups. Literature will be distributed to local stakeholders by mail and in person. (2) As a simplified version of the model which can be run by a user with nominal computer skills on a PC. The simplified model will have options for easily running alternative scenarios. Information will be disseminated at village and boma levels through meetings conducted in Kiswahili, by anthropologists, pastoralist liasons, and community-based conservationists. At the same time, we will elicit input from this level for use in IMAS model scenario development and model evolution. Regionalization Plan The IMAS will be regionalized in four efforts. (1) By conducting cross-site comparisons among the study sites in 3 or 4 countries. Our study design includes sites which represent a wide range of pastoral land use situations in East Africa. (2) We will scale up to the region based upon our understanding of the varied situations in different countries and physical environments, and the distributions of such environments across the region. We envision a regional-scale modeling initiative which will be designed to address broad-scale gradients and differences. Regional-scale modeling will be used to identify areas of high and low conflicts between pastoralists and wildlife, in relation to policies which may be causes of, or which aim to resolve such conflicts. This will serve to identify regional-level priorities for intervention or policy analysis. (3) We will work with regional-level organizations such as ASARECA, which aim to identify research priorities at the regional level. We will both listen to the recommendations of ASARECA, and we hope to provide information to ASARECA which will be useful in their deliberations. (4) We will establish a regional communications forum, using electronic media (electronic bulletin boards, world-wide-web pages). The SAVANNA modeling effort will be extended to a regional scale. During the first three years, databases will be developed (at ILRI) to run the SAVANNA model for the four intensive research sites. We will collect, develop and analyze GIS data for regional modeling. The objectives of the regional modeling are: 1) to conduct a broader-brush analysis of different pastoral systems in the region, to test the generality of the lessons learned during the SAVANNA modeling exercise at the three field sites, 2) to identify other areas in East Africa that are similar to each of the three field sites, and 3) to develop possible future scenarios of change in pastoral systems in the region, based in part on human population growth projections. Impacts have to be assessed at regional levels, because land-use and other decisions are often made at these levels as well as at the individual household level. Aggregation of human ecological responses from the household level to the regional level will be done using a household or farming system typology. At the regional level, we will look at impacts on production, resource use, and nutritional status of changes in land use and economic activity. An expanded SAVANNA model with more complex economics modules will be able to provide the type of input-output coefficients that can be used in a number of other, more highly aggregated analytical frameworks such as economic surplus models and methods based on econometric production, profit or cost functions. A regionally uniform format for describing Ecological Response Units is needed. A uniform format for describing ERUs would provide a basis for using existing data, and would provide a platform for future inventories, whether vis-a-vis remotely-sensed or ground data. The ERU is the fundamental spatial scale for monitoring responses to changes in livestock, wildlife, and people and provides a way to scale up from landscapes to regions. A uniform data base would facilitate documentation of regional trends and provide uniform data for policy decisions. We propose to hold a regional workshop composed of representatives of organizational units responsible for soils and ecological data-bases. The objective of this workshop would be to design a uniform method for interpreting variation in plants and soils throughout the region. The scheme should be designed to accept both remotely-sensed and ground data. The database will provide information for the decision support model on multiple spatial scales. A goal would be to establish a format that would be adopted by all governmental and non-government entities. Team Composition and Management Structure Ours is a relatively large and interdisciplinary team, consisting of 10 American-based, 9 Kenya-based, 5 Tanzania-based, and 3 Uganda-based personnel. Of these, 9 are native African. The roles and disciplines of each are given in the Team Composition Form (Appendix). There is a P.I. (Coughenour), and a co-P.I. (Galvin). The team is organized into Subproject Teams - Range Ecology (Child, Coughenour, Rittenhouse, Kinyamario, Banyikwa, Rainey, Acen), Wildlife and Conservation (Ellis, Coughenour, Moehlman, Else, Mugisho, Acen, Barrow), Livestock (Rittenhouse, Ellis, Kidunda, Mwilawa), Human Ecology (Galvin, McCabe, Magennis, O'Malley, Rainey, ole Ikayo, Mugisho), Modeling (Coughenour, Thornton, Reid, post-doc), Disease (DeMartini, Rwambo, Grootenhuis, Else, Howe), Policy and Economics (Thornton, Davis, Mbogoh), GIS and Regional Analyses (Reid, Kruska, Ellis, Coughenour). Each group will elect a Subproject Coordinator. For each site we will identify a Site Scientific Coordinator (SSC) based in Colorado, and a Site Coordinator based at the site. Ellis and Galvin have expressed interests in being SSC's for Kajiado and Greater Serengeti. Moehlman, Rainey, and Mugisho will act as SC's for Serengeti-Tarangire, Kajiado, and Lake Mburo, respectively. The SSC will be responsible for planning and organizing activities scientifically and in relation to project level objectives, while the SC will be responsible for coordinating activities on-site, for input into the design of the research, and for leadership in conducting the research. Graduate students will have major professors or co-advisors who are team members or collaborators with necessary faculty appointments (to be determined). All but one of the CSU and CU team members can act in this capacity. Faculty appointments at regional universities are held by four team members. Institutional and Organizational Collaborators. We have formal commitments to collaborative research from: 4 institutions - International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI, Semi-arid Rangelands Research and Animal Health Programs); Project Coordination Unit of the Uganda Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities (UMTWA); Mpwapa Zonal Research Station of the Tanzania Ministry of Agriculture (TMA); a university (Sokoine, Tanzania); a private company - Explore Mara Ltd. (EML); and a private organization - Ololepo Hills Landowners Association (OHLA). We also have verbal expressions of interest in collaboration from a pastoral NGO (Inyuaat Maa), Depts. of Botany (UNB) and Agricultural Economics (UNAE) of Univ. Nairobi, Institute for Resource Assessment (IRA), Univ. College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), and Zoology Depts. (UDZ) of Univ. Dar es Salaam, and African Wildlife Foundation (AWF). Through linked research projects we also have ties to Serengeti Wildlife Research Institute (SWRI) and Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority (NCAA). We will try to develop linkages with Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA), Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), and the Tanzania USAID Mission. Integration with Other Funding Sources. We can integrate independently funded research by our team members in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem (Coughenour, Galvin, Ellis, McCabe). The SAVANNA modeling projects of Coughenour, funded by USGS BRD and NPS have many of the same objectives as the work proposed here, particularly development and use of the same model for the purpose of managing ecosystems dominated by large herbivores. The use of SAVANNA in the Yellowstone bison brucellosis project is an example of wildlife-pastoral interactions. The work of many NGO's in the region will be integrated as much as possible. We have letters of support from the Dutch ASAL program in Kajiado and the AWF in Tanzania (see Appendix). Other organizations have given verbal support. Many sources of in-kind contributions have been identified and put into dollar amounts in this document. Others have not been valued this way, but their importance should not be overlooked. Developmental Relevance African livestock development has, at best, a mixed record of success. Where range livestock development is concerned, the record show an unmitigated failure. Thus, for East African pastoral people, little or no benefit has been derived from past development projects (Homewood 1992). Nutritional status indicators suggest that regardless of developmental status or assimilation into the dominant culture, pastoral populations remain chronically undernourished (Homewood 1992, Galvin 1992). On the other hand conservation-based ecotourism is one of the great success stories of East African development. And much of this successful ecotourism occurs on the traditional grazing lands of East African pastoralists. The causes for the failure of livestock development lie in poor science and the misunderstanding of the needs and objectives of pastoral people (Coughenour et al. 1985). The goals of this project are directly relevant to and aimed at improving the economic welfare and food security of pastoral people by incorporating conservation-based economic activities with range livestock development. This coupling of conservation with livestock development provides opportunities for ecologically sustainable livestock enterprises, but there are challenges in the joint utilization of rangelands by livestock and wildlife species. The IMAS proposed here provides potential policy directives and management alternatives to meet the challenges of joint rangeland utilization while searching for opportunities to optimize economic welfare and pastoral food security. The IMAS does this by packaging scientific information in the framework of development policy, so that alternative development strategies may be evaluated. Development efforts and policies of international NGO's, and government agencies should benefit from the IMAS. The IMAS will be structured to represent responses to policy at local through regional levels, of pastoralist production and well being, and wildlife and biodiversity status. Team members have experience in economic and environmental policy analysis (Davis, Thornton, Mbogoh), and in national and international wildlife and conservation policies (Moehlman, Else, Grootenhuis, Barrow). We will identify policies and their effects on pastoral livestock production systems, and wildlife conservation systems in East Africa. Policy influence will require involvement of government agencies for natural resource assessment, planning, and agriculture. These will include Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA), the Tanzania Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority (NCAA), Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), the Uganda Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, and government agricultural ministries. OBJECTIVES MATRIX: KAJIADO Objective: Determine the impact
of enterprise scale on land use and on livestock production, pastoral welfare,
wildlife and on ecosystem integrity (the 4 objective functions).
Developmental Relevance: The objective
here is directly relevant to and aimed at improving the economic welfare
and food security (and thereby, nutritional status) of pastoral people
by incorporating conservation-based economic activities with range livestock
development. This coupling of conservation with livestock development provides
opportunities for ecologically sustainable livestock enterprises. The integrated
assessment system does this by packaging scientific information in the
framework of development policy, so that alternative development strategies
may be evaluated.
OBJECTIVES MATRIX: GREATER SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM and TARANGIRE Objective: Determine the impact
of an increasing human population , conservation policy and disease interactions
on land use, and on livestock production, pastoral welfare, wildlife, and
ecosystem integrity (the 4 objective functions).
Developmental Relevance: The objective
here is directly relevant to and aimed at improving the economic welfare
and food security (and thereby, nutritional status) of pastoral people
by incorporating conservation-based economic activities with range livestock
development. This coupling of conservation with livestock development provides
opportunities for ecologically sustainable livestock enterprises. The integrated
assessment system does this by packaging scientific information in the
framework of development policy, so that alternative development strategies
may be evaluated.
OBJECTIVES MATRIX: LAKE MBURO Objective : Determine the effects
of land tenure on land use and on livestock production, pastoral welfare,
wildlife and on ecosystem integrity (the 4 objective functions).
Developmental Relevance: The objective here is directly relevant to and aimed at improving the economic welfare and food security (and thereby, nutritional status) of pastoral people by incorporating conservation-based economic activities with range livestock development. This coupling of conservation with livestock development provides opportunities for ecologically sustainable livestock enterprises. The integrated assessment system does this by packaging scientific information in the framework of development policy, so that alternative development strategies may be evaluated. OBJECTIVES MATRIX: MODELING Objective: Develop a computerized
modeling and assessment system that will improve prospects for balancing
the needs of pastoralists and wildlife conservation in East Africa.
Developmental Relevance: Development can be conducted with increased capabilities to predict ecological components of livestock-wildlife interactions throughout region, leading to improved wildlife conservation, increased livestock-based food security, and improved human welfare throughout the region. Appendix - Team Composition Form
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